Story# 19: A Power Struggle in Iran: Ahmadinejad VS the Shark!

The Iranian President Ahmadinejad is seeking to overthrow one of the founding fathers of the Islamic Republic of Iran: Ayatollah Rafsanjani or the Shark. He earned this reputation, because he successfully defeated all those who opposed him.

Each man occupies a powerful position within the Iranian regime.  

Ahmadinejad is relying on his great influence within the military apparatus. He is promising them the wealth that the clergy (which Rafsanjani represents) long denied.  Rafsanjani has also favored the Revolutionary Guards over them. The military feels that the clergy did not treat them with justice. (Please read story# 17 which explains the influence of the notion of justice on the Iranian worldview.) 

Rafsanjani is relying on his position as the Chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council of the System and the Chairman of the Assembly of Experts, which is in charge or electing and removing the Supreme Leader.

Ahmadinejad made his first move and issued a warrant to arrest Rafsanjani’s son Mahdi, as the first step to weaken the father. Mahdi is charged with extortion, corruption, and having suspicious foreign connections.  Ahmadinajad is delivering on his electoral promise of holding the new aristocrats accountable.

Rafsanjani has not countered yet. He is playing a defensive role that does not suit his reputation as the shark.

I must say that going after Mahdi, was going after the easy target. Mahdi succeeded in building his commercial empire in a short a time.  

However, why is Ahmadinajad going after Rafsanjani?

The answer is wealth and power.  Ahmadinajad is seeking to empower his group, his loyal inner circle. To accomplish that goal successfully, he needs to remove Rafsanjani and his loyalists from positions of power and replace them with his own.

Sharing is not an option, since wealth and power are limited.

Why should the U.S. care about this power struggle or “what is in it for us?”

If Ahmadinajad wins, then he will introduce a new chapter of the Iranian Revolution. This chapter will be more radical, rigorous, and aggressive to introduce the Iranian version of Islam. The result is repositioning Iran as a national state with followers all over the Muslim world, not a religious state that governs only within the Iranian border.

If Rafsanjani wins, then he will focus on free market and privatization to empower his loyal group.  Moreover, Rafsanjani long advocated for cutting a deal with the U.S. over the nuclear program of Iran.

Who will win?

The struggle has just started. It is too early to tell.  However, the Shark will not be defeated easily.